WTI Crude Oil nears $93.00, with the Strait of Hormuz practically closed
Oil prices edge up, approaching $93.00 from weekly lows at the $86.00 area.Mines and bureaucracy keep the Strait of Hormuz practically closed.Concerns about the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran are supporting Oil prices.Oil prices are ticking up for the second consecutive day on Friday. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has returned to levels near $93.00 per barrel, as restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz keep a de facto blockade in place, adding strain to an already frail ceasefire deal in Iran.
Latest data from the Hormuz Strait Monitor shows that only 12 ships have crossed the waterway, compared with up to 140 per day before the war. US President Donald Trump has complained about the poor handling of the Strait by the Iranian authorities and claimed on Truth Social that ”That was not the agreement we had”.
Meanwhile, the fate of the US-Iran peace talks, expected to start on Tuesday, remains in the air. Tehran affirmed that it will not take part in any negotiation process until Israel stops its attacks on Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that he has authorised direct talks with Lebanese authorities, but also said that operations against Hezbollah will continue. Iran has threatened with strong responses if attacks on its ally continue, while Hezbollah has reportedly fired missiles at Israel.
This is keeping investors on edge, and Oil prices supported, while markets shift their views, at least temporarily, to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, due later on Friday. Price pressures are expected to have jumped well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% rate, which will add pressure on the central bank to tighten interest rates at least once this year.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI OilThe weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.