USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejection at 0.8270 leaves key support at 0.8225 exposed
- USD/CHF retraces Monday's gains and retreats below 0.8250 on Tuesday.
- The US Dollar struggles as investors brace for steady Fed interest rates after next week's Fed meeting.
- A break below 0.8225 would confirm a double top at the 0.8390 area.
The US Dollar (USD) retraces Monday’s gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, as investors brace for a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause next week, while concerns about a potential AI bubble add pressure on the Greenback. The USD/CHF retreats to session lows near 0.8440, after being capped at 0.8270, with the bottom of the monthly trading range, at the 0.8225 area, in focus for bears.
Investors are trimming US Dollar longs as they assume that the Fed will not hike interest rates at its October meeting, despite the overshoot inflation figures released in recent weeks. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows an 82% chance that the US central bank stands pat on rates next week, up from 42% one month ago.
Beyond that, the increasing wariness about the profitability of the AI sector is providing an additional source of pressure on the Greenback on Tuesday. Analysts at MUFG highlight that foreign investors have purchased “USD 942 billion of US equities in the twelve months to July,” boosting demand for the US Dollar in FX markets. The bank's experts warn that “this dynamic also leaves the USD more exposed to a reversal if sentiment towards AI deteriorates.”
Data from Switzerland released earlier on Tuesday revealed that the trade surplus narrowed to CHF 1.309 billion in September, from the upwardly revised CHF 4.185 billion in August, as the jump in imports offset a more moderate increase in exports. The impact of these figures on the CHF, however, was minimal.
Technical Analysis: A potential Double Top pattern is in the making
USD/CHF trades at 0.8244, with recent price action highlighting a moderate bearish trend. Four-hour charts show the Relative Strength Index (14) at 38.43, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has turned marginally positive, which suggests that downside momentum is fading but not yet reversed decisively.
Bears are aiming for the support area at 0.8225, the October 2 and 16 lows, and also the neckline of a Double Top pattern just ahead of the 0.8400 level. This is a common figure for trend shifts and would boost sellers' confidence to test the September 16 and 22 lows around 0.8180. The Double Top's measured target is at the September 9 low, near 0.8070.
On the topside, bulls need to break the session high at 0.8270 to open the way toward a previous support-turned-resistance around 0.8315, ahead of the mentioned top at the 0,8390 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.46% | -0.12% | -0.29% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.23% | -0.50% | -0.16% | -0.34% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.21% | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.23% | -0.08% | -0.28% | 0.08% | -0.12% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.50% | 0.21% | 0.28% | 0.35% | 0.17% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.16% | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.35% | -0.18% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.12% | -0.17% | 0.18% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.19% | 0.15% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).