Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD touches multi-week high, around $1,940 ahead of US CPI
Gold price continues gaining traction on Wednesday and climbs to a three-week high. Doubts over more Fed rate hikes to weigh on the US Dollar and benefit the XAU/USD. Investors now look to the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh directional impetus.
Gold price builds on its recent goodish rebound from the vicinity of the $1,900 round-figure mark and continues scaling higher through the Asian session on Wednesday. The momentum lifts the XAU/USD to a three-week high, around the $1,940 region in the last hour and is sponsored by sustained US Dollar (USD) selling bias.
Weaker US Dollar continues to benefit Gold price
In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drops to a two-month low in the wake of speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed has limited headroom to continue tightening its monetary policy amid signs that the labor market in the United States (US) is cooling and expectations for a further deceleration in consumer prices.
Sliding US bond yields further lend support to XAU/USD
It is worth recalling that the closely-watched US monthly employment details released on Friday showed that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years. Furthermore, the New York Fed's monthly survey revealed on Monday that the one-year consumer inflation expectation dropped to the lowest level since April 2021, to 3.8% in June from 4.1% in the previous month. This could allow the Fed to soften its hawkish stance and leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which undermines the buck and benefits the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold price seems poised to prolong the appreciating move
Wednesday's intraday positive move, meanwhile, pushes the XAU/USD above the $1,935 supply zone and might have already set the stage for a further appreciating move. That said, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later during the early North American session. The crucial report might influence the Fed's future rate-hike path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price.
Gold price technical outlook
From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged around the $1,950 area. This is closely followed by the $1,962-$1,964 hurdle, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price beyond the $1,970-$1,972 supply zone, towards reclaiming the $2,000 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the $1,935 resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,925 horizontal support and the weekly low, around the $1,912 area. Failure to defend the said support levels could drag the Gold price back towards the $1,900 round-figure mark en route to the multi-month low, around the $1,893-$1,892 region touched in June. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders.