Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers some lost ground above $1,920, eyes on US data
Gold price (XAU/USD) experiences a partial recovery from its recent decline of around $1,928 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Gold price remains under selling pressure as the Federal Reserve (Fed) held the benchmark policy rates at 5.5% while delivering the hawkish remarks.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the 5.25-5.50% range during its September meeting, as widely predicted in the market. Officials are more optimistic that they might curb inflation without damaging the economy or causing significant job losses. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving 2% inflation in a press conference. Powel added that the Fed is ready to raise rates if necessary.
According to the Fed's most recent quarterly predictions, the benchmark overnight interest rate may be hiked one more time this year to a peak range of 5.50% to 5.75%, and rates could be significantly tighter through 2024 than previously anticipated. Additionally, the Fed updated its Summary of Projections (SEP), indicating that Fed officials expect interest rates to reach 5.1% by the end of 2024 (from 4.6% prior). It’s worth noting that rising interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets, implying a negative outlook for precious metals.
Gold traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed, and Existing Home Sales due later on Thursday. On Friday, the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for September will be released. These figures could provide a clear direction for gold price.
XAU/USD technical outlook
On the four-hour chart, gold price saw a rejection from the $1,948 mark following the Fed interest rate decision. The precious metal has remained well supported above the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1924.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located in the 40-60 zone, indicating a non-directional movement for gold price for the time being.
Resistance level: $1,950, $1,965 and $1,982
Support level: $1,924, $1,915 and $1,900