Forex Today: US Dollar steadies as Hormuz tensions persist despite fragile ceasefire headlines
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 17:The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 98.20 price region on a firm footing amid a complex geopolitical backdrop. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, with reports of a “double blockage” disrupting flows even as some tankers manage to pass. Iran’s proposal to impose a toll payable via its domestic banking system adds a new layer of uncertainty to global trade and energy markets. Meanwhile, diplomatic clarity remains elusive, with talks between Washington and Tehran still unconfirmed, although the United States (US) President Donald Trump hinted that a meeting could take place over the weekend.
A tentative 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is set to begin on Thursday at 5:00 pm EST, but its credibility is already being questioned. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that forces will remain in the South Lebanon buffer zone. Meanwhile, Hezbollah indicated that any ongoing Israeli presence would justify their resistance to it. The group also cautioned that the ceasefire should not allow Israel operational freedom within Lebanon, underscoring the fragility of the agreement and maintaining elevated geopolitical risks.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% 0.20% 0.13% -0.29% 0.15% 0.45% 0.18% EUR -0.15% 0.05% -0.02% -0.42% 0.00% 0.27% 0.03% GBP -0.20% -0.05% -0.04% -0.48% -0.05% 0.22% -0.03% JPY -0.13% 0.02% 0.04% -0.43% 0.04% 0.27% 0.05% CAD 0.29% 0.42% 0.48% 0.43% 0.45% 0.73% 0.48% AUD -0.15% -0.01% 0.05% -0.04% -0.45% 0.26% 0.05% NZD -0.45% -0.27% -0.22% -0.27% -0.73% -0.26% -0.24% CHF -0.18% -0.03% 0.03% -0.05% -0.48% -0.05% 0.24%The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading with a softer tone near the 1.1780 price region, standing down after eight straight days of gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw support from safe-haven demand. Persistent geopolitical stress and uncertainty around energy flows keep downside pressure on the pair as traders remain cautious about the Eurozone’s exposure to external shocks.
GBP/USD is also under pressure, drifting lower near the 1.3530 level amid a stronger Greenback and a risk-averse market environment.
USD/JPY is edging higher near 159.10, supported by the firm USD and steady US yields. While the Japanese Yen retains some safe-haven appeal, it is being outpaced by the US Dollar’s strength, particularly as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved and energy risks linger.
AUD/USD is trading defensively near the 0.7160 price region, weighed down by deteriorating risk sentiment. The Australian Dollar (AUD), typically sensitive to global growth and commodity demand, remains on the back foot amid uncertainty over oil supply routes and Middle East developments, which clouds the outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $93.90 per barrel, firmer on the day as supply concerns stemming from the Hormuz disruption keep it afloat. The introduction of potential Iranian transit tolls and the lack of confirmed diplomatic progress continue to fuel upside risks, even as partial tanker movement prevents a full supply shock.
Gold (XAU/USD) is muted near $4,789 after benefiting from sustained safe-haven demand earlier in the day. Speculation about an ongoing ceasefire is deterring investors from safe havens.
What’s next in the docket:Friday, April 17:
US IMF MeetingWTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI OilThe weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
