EUR/GBP: There is probably some further downside room – ING
EUR/GBP has moved down to the 0.86 level. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
EUR/GBP can slip further this weekThe week's highlight is Wednesday’s parliament testimony by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Friday’s monthly GDP figures for November. Overall, we expect a generally positive impact on Sterling, especially in the crosses such as EUR/GBP, as Bailey may keep signalling a more cautious tone compared to the market on rate cuts and growth should bounce back in the November print.
As the year started, we had called for a return to 0.8600 in EUR/GBP. Now, there is probably some further downside room as BoE rate expectations appear more flexible to a hawkish repricing than the ECB ones, at least in the near term. That said, these are attractive levels to play a longer-term bullish view on the pair based on a deterioration of UK economic conditions and consequently more aggressive cuts by the BoE than the ECB.