EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Flatlines with neutral technical outlook as traders eye intervention risks
- EUR/JPY holds steady near 184.75 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a neutral outlook, while RSI momentum hovers around the midline.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 184.32.
The EUR/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 184.75 during the early European session on Thursday. Markets remain cautious over further currency intervention after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the official is prepared to take action at any time against excessive FX volatility.
The stronger-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter (Q1) might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the cross. Japan’s Q1 GDP beat forecasts, growing at an annualized rate of 2.1% against the estimated 1.7%.
On the other hand, hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could lift the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank may have to act at its June meeting as the Iran energy shock proves persistent and the probability of broader inflation spreading continues to rise.
The majority of economists from the Reuters poll, around 85%, indicated that the ECB would raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in June, up from just over half expecting that before the April meeting.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in a sideways tone, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading just under the 20-day Bollinger mid-line, which keeps the immediate bias broadly neutral after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 is hovering around the midline, hinting at a lack of directional conviction rather than strong selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger mid-band around 185.00, with a stronger cap emerging at the May 12 high of 185.46 if bulls regain traction. The next hurdle to watch is the upper Bollinger band near 187.15. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 184.32 offers first support, ahead of the May 7 low of 183.50. The critical support level is seen at the lower Bollinger band around 182.88, where a sustained break would likely expose a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
