Unlock the macro forces shaping 2026 FX: download the OANDA x Visual Capitalist Outlook report

Three macro themes shaping FX strategy in 2026 

The Outlook provides an essential foundational understanding, starting with a two-part FX Crib Sheet that offers a fast, high-level read on where major currencies stand and the macro forces most likely to influence positioning. Beyond this overview, the report delves into three thematic reports on themes that could shape your FX strategy in 2026. 

1. The US dollar (USD) and the interest rate easing cycle 

The US interest rate cut cycle remains the central playmaker, creating ripple effects across global yield spreads. Notably, 2025 represented the U.S. dollar’s worst performance in over seven years. 

The analysis shows that when the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, history indicates the US dollar rarely escapes the fallout. Tracking USD performance across the last three major easing cycles reveals a clear pattern: while the dollar may hold firm early on, it tends to weaken materially over longer horizons. On average, the USD slips –6% at six months and nearly –9% after one year into the cycle. 

Traders are watching closely as 2026 begins: if the Fed cuts further, will the dollar follow its historical playbook and soften again? The impact, however, hinges on relative interest rates, as global shocks often spur other major central banks to follow the Fed, leading to synchronized policy shifts. 

2. Redrawing the map of global trade dynamics 

Evolving trade dynamics are continuing to redraw the map of global commerce. With US trade policy shifting, global exporters are no longer competing on a level playing field. 

The Outlook breaks down how countries stack up when comparing their own tariff burden against that of their competitors. Countries showing meaningful relative advantages—such as Mexico, Canada, the UK, Singapore, and Italy—are positioned to benefit from improved access to the US market. These countries could potentially see supportive currency flows in 2026 as trade momentum strengthens. 

Conversely, countries like China, India, Brazil, Switzerland, and South Korea face growing disadvantages that may translate into FX pressure and weaker export performance. For traders, these divergences highlight where both tailwinds and headwinds are forming in the year ahead. 

3. Gold’s rally and the FX-driven tailwind 

Gold prices, which often serve as a safe haven investment, may shift sentiment and correlations across multiple FX pairs. Gold’s breakout in 2025 has been powerful globally. Even against 2025’s best-performing currencies, like the euro and Swiss franc, gold has posted impressive gains. 

This performance highlights a crucial dynamic for investors: gold’s performance is tightly linked to foreign exchange. If a currency is set to weaken, gold priced in that currency can deliver an extra tailwind, as the local gold price tends to rise more sharply. 

Finalize your 2026 strategy 

The FX landscape in 2026 will be shaped by the interplay of rates, growth, and shifting global alignments—not by any single headline. Understanding the nuance between these different macroeconomic themes is critical to long-term trading success. Whether you need to find new trading opportunities, manage an active position, or adjust risk, the themes in this report will enhance your fundamental knowledge and facilitate a clearer understanding of an FX landscape that is growing increasingly complex.