Monthly Tactical Views (Mar) – Gold, Swiss franc, and material stocks set to outperform as US-Iran conflict intensifies

• Geopolitical risk premium rising: The US-led strike on Iran and escalating retaliation have reinforced a sustained risk-off backdrop, supporting the March tactical theme of higher safe-haven demand and materials-linked trades amid potential Middle East oil disruptions.
• Gold’s medium-term uptrend strengthening: Gold has rebounded nearly 20% from its February low, with momentum rebuilding. A breakout above $5,602 opens scope toward $5,910, while $4,842 remains key support to preserve the bullish structure.
• Swiss franc breakout confirms haven bid: EUR/CHF remains in a major downtrend after breaking a 7-month range, reflecting sustained CHF strength. Below 0.9010 exposes deeper downside, while 0.9225 caps recovery attempts.
• Materials and Newmont outperforming: Strength in metals and energy sectors continues, with Newmont’s uptrend intact and relative strength versus the S&P 500 improving. A break above 134.88 signals further upside, while 118 is critical support.

The US, together with Israel, launched an attack on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026, that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite an attempt by Oman mediators to extend “diplomacy measures” for another round of negotiation talks over Iran’s nuclear stockpile.

The recent shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela—highlighted by the January military operation involving President Maduro—signals a more interventionist approach. This move toward direct leadership targeting has reintroduced a significant geopolitical risk premium into global markets, as investors price in the potential for further escalations.

The past 48 hours have seen a flurry of attacks from both sides, with Iran’s retaliation bombardments on US military assets spread across the Middle East in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman.

The latest US-Iran conflict is likely not going to be a “symbolic attack” akin to last summer, as US President Trump said the US military will continue bombing Iran until his objectives are achieved.

In our January monthly tactical views, we have already mentioned energy-linked trades via higher oil prices due to oil flow disruptions in the Middle East. For March, we will continue to build on the theme of rising geopolitical risk premiums coupled with a potential increase in safe-haven demand in a risk-off environment.

Read more: Monthly tactical view for February – oil & geopolitics’ market implications

Before the US attack on Iran, gold (XAU/USD) had staged a rally of 19.9% from the 2 February low of $4,402 and recorded a close of $5,278 on Friday, 27 February 2026, which has surpassed more than 61.8% retracement of the prior swift decline from the 29 January 2026 all-time high of $5,602 to 2 February 2026 low (see Fig. 1).

In addition, the daily RSI momentum has rebounded higher to 65 after it managed to find support at the 50 level, which suggests a potential build-up in medium-term bullish momentum.

Watch the $4,842 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the current all-time high of $5,602 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at $5,910 (upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 22 August 2025 low and a Fibonacci extension level).

On the other hand, a break and a daily close below $4,842 invalidates the bullish tone to see a retest at the next supports of $4,550 and $4,380.

The Swiss franc, considered a safe haven, staged an intraday rally of 0.7% to its highest level against the euro at 0.9029 per euro during the Asian session on Monday, 2 March, before paring back its gains.

Before the latest round of the US-Iran conflict, the EUR/CHF staged a bearish breakdown from a 7-month range configuration on 17 November 2025, reinforcing its ongoing major downtrend phase, which has been in place since the 14 March 2025 high of 0.9662 (see Fig. 2).

Watch the 0.9225 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average), and a break below 0.9010 intermediate support exposes the medium-term supports at 0.8940/8890 and 0.8770/8740 (Fibonacci extension clusters).

However, a clearance and a daily close above 0.9225 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next medium-term resistance at 0.9445 before the major resistance comes in at 0.9650.

US materials stocks have continued to maintain their bullish momentum since the start of the new year, supported by an ongoing broad-based major bullish trend seen in precious and industrial metals.

Within the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the SPDR Materials ETF (XLB) ranked the second top performer year-to-date as of 27 February, with a gain of 17.8%, behind the SPDR Energy ETF (XLE)’s magnificent rally of 25% (see Fig. 3).

A potentially prolonged US-Iran war and its ramifications in the Middle East may continue to support firmer metals prices, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop back into US materials stocks.

Newmont Corporation (NEM), the world’s largest gold mining company with significant production of copper, silver, zine and lead, has rallied by 3.7% since 25 February 2025 (see Fig. 4).

Its daily MACD trend indicator has flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline, which reinforces its ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in place since the 28 October 2025 low of 75.83.

In addition, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Newmont Corporation against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has continued to trend upwards above its zero line and 50-day moving average. These observations suggest that Newmont Corporation may continue to outperform the S&P 500.

Watch the 118 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average), and a clearance above the 134.88 current all-time high sees the next medium-term resistances come in at 144.54 and 152.12/153.16 (Fibonacci extension clusters).

On the flip side, a break with a daily close below 118.00 invalidates the bullish scenario for a corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 108.05 and 98.00.