As the Magnificent 7 face a challenging start to 2026, the market's focus shifts to NVIDIA as the ultimate AI bellwether. We analyse NVIDIA’s technical setup, focusing on the 169.55 key support level and the potential for a breakout toward 212.19.
Chart of the week – NVIDIA
Key takeaways
- Magnificent 7 lagging in 2026: US mega-cap tech stocks have underperformed year-to-date, with Microsoft down by 18%, trailing the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Rising competition from new AI tools has also raised concerns about pressure on SaaS business models.
- NVIDIA in focus as AI bellwether: NVIDIA, with modestly positive YTD, reports earnings on 25 February, with results and guidance expected to signal the current status of global AI demand.
- Constructive technical setup: NVIDIA is holding above its 200-day moving average, with improving relative strength and a bullish MACD crossover. A break above 195.95 could open a retest of 212.19, while 169.55 remains key support.
The mega-cap stocks in the US stock market, the Magnificent 7, have continued to underperform the market in general since the start of 2026, with the worst performer being Microsoft, with a double-digit year-to-date loss of 18% versus the Nasdaq 100 (-0.9%) and S&P 500 (+0.9%) (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of Magnificent 7 & US stock indices as of 20 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).
New Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools from Google and Anthropic raised concerns that the competitive edge of SaaS (Software as a Service) firms could be eroding.
NVIDIA, the AI juggernaut that managed to eke out a meagre YTD gain of 1.8%, will report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 25 February, after the US session closes. Its results and guidance will likely serve as a leader for global AI demand.
Let’s decipher NVIDIA from a technical analysis perspective.
NVIDIA (NVDA) is holding above its key 200-day moving average
Fig. 2: NVIDIA (NVDA) medium-term trend as of 20 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView).
Since 20 November 2025, the price actions of Nivida have been trading in a three-month sideways range configuration, holding above its key 200-day moving average.
Two positive technical developments have emerged (see Fig. 2).
Firstly, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has shaped a “higher low” since 19 February 2025, below its zero line. These observations suggest that the underperformance of NVIDIA in comparison with the S&P 500 is losing strength.
Secondly, the daily MACD trend indicator of NVIDIA has shaped a bullish crossover above its centreline, which highlights the possibility of a trend change from sideways to an uptrend phase.
Watch the 169.55 key medium-term pivotal support (also close to the 200-day moving average) on NVIDIA, and a clearance above the intermediate range resistance of 195.95 may trigger the start of a potential medium-term uptrend phase for a retest on its current all-time high of 212.19 printed on 29 October 2025 in the first step.
On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 169.55 invalidates the bullish scenario to expose the next medium-term supports at 153.00 and 135.35/129.90 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend from 7 April 2025 low to 29 October 2025 high).
Read more on VARS: How to prevent the high-beta trap and find the relevant stocks
The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
