Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues its bullish advance as lower energy costs, stronger economic surprises, and positive technical signals support a move toward fresh record highs.
Key takeaways
- The Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh all-time high as easing US-Iran tensions boosted global risk appetite.
- Falling oil prices are improving Japan’s economic outlook by reducing energy costs for manufacturers and exporters.
- A potential bullish reversal above the 50-day moving average sees 71,790/73,110 resistance next.
The announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran to end hostilities in today’s early Asian session (Monday, 16 June) and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz has triggered a massive sigh of relief and a spike in intraday risk-on behaviour across global markets.
The price actions of the Nikkei 225 jumped by 5% to hit another fresh intraday all-time high of 69,682 at the time of writing, surpassing the psychologically significant 69,000 mark for the first time in history.
Lowering the “oil risk premium”
Fig. 1: Japan Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as of 11 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
As a heavy net importer of energy, Japan’s corporate margins were heavily penalised by the US-Iran conflict’s threat to energy supply lines. In today’s Asia session, the WTI crude oil has plummeted by almost 5%, breaking below the former $85.50/barrel key medium-term support to trade at an intraday level of $81.40/barrel, a 3-month low.
Lower crude input costs act as an immediate tailwind for Japan’s industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Before this morning’s announcement of the US-Iran interim peace deal, Japan’s Citigroup Economic Surprise Index had rebounded swiftly from 57.10 printed on Friday, 5 June 2026, to hit almost a 3-year high of 64.70 on last Thursday, 11 June 2026 (see Fig. 1).
Hence, softer oil prices are likely to further improve Japan’s economic prospects, in turn supporting the near-term bullish trend of the Nikkei 225.
Now, let’s focus on the technical chart of the Japan 225 CFD.
Bullish reversal above the 50-day moving average
Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD medium-term trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The price action of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) has formed a bullish reversal on 11 June 2026, right above the 50-day moving average, and has traded back above the 20-day moving average (see Fig. 2).
These positive observations suggest that the Japan 225 CFD’s medium-term uptrend from the 30 March 2026 low of 50,395 remains intact.
Watch the 64,850 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the potential bullish tone. A clearance above the 69,560 near-term resistance may see the medium-term resistance coming in at 71,790/73,110 (Fibonacci extension cluster).
On the flip side, failure to hold and a daily close below 64,850 would negate the bullish tone, potentially leading to a retest of the 50-day moving average support at 62,040. Breaking below 62,040 may trigger a multi-week corrective decline, exposing the next medium-term support at 59,313/270.
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
