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UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August, while core and services inflation remained stable. The data support keeping interest rates unchanged tomorrow but do not eliminate the risk of future tightening. With wage growth slowing and the labour market weakening, the four rate hikes currently priced in by markets still appear too aggressive.

The yen’s medium-term outlook remains constructive, but much of the expected Bank of Japan tightening may already be priced in. With weak consumption limiting the scope for aggressive rate hikes, USD/JPY may consolidate near 155 unless the BoJ or Japan’s GPIF provides a fresh catalyst.

Gold is undergoing a shallow correction ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A neutral stance on easing financial conditions could support another test of USD 4,775 and USD 4,890 per ounce. A hawkish message, however, could revive expectations of a September rate hike, strengthen the dollar and trigger a deeper pullback.

A sharp rise in US Treasury yields dominated the week before the Treasury Department expanded its long-term bond buyback programme. The move improved market liquidity and briefly reduced borrowing costs, but also weakened the dollar. With oil prices elevated and US debt exceeding USD40 trillion, investors are questioning whether Washington is becoming more willing to tolerate currency depreciation in order to stabilise the bond market.

The dollar remains supported by relatively hawkish Fed expectations, but this advantage may weaken. A US-Iran de-escalation could lower energy prices and inflation risks, reducing the case for further US tightening. If markets begin to price a softer Fed policy path, the dollar could come under pressure and EUR/USD could gradually move higher.

Oil markets are reacting to the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. While short term supply remains constrained, rising spare capacity and weakening cartel discipline point to higher volatility ahead, with current price declines likely driven by profit taking rather than a trend reversal.

Gold markets experienced strong volatility in Q1, with record highs followed by sharp corrections. ETF flows reflected investor caution, shifting from strong inflows to outflows by March. High prices are dampening jewelry demand, while central bank actions add complexity. Despite weaker physical demand, geopolitical risks and expectations of looser monetary policy support a positive medium-term outlook for gold.

The NBP increased its gold reserves in March 2026 by about 13 tons, taking advantage of a sharp price correction. Total holdings rose to around 580 tons. Despite a lower valuation due to falling prices, the central bank continues its strategy of accumulation and is now just over 30 tons away from entering the global top 10 in gold reserves.

Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% mainly due to higher energy prices driven by tensions in Iran, while core inflation remained subdued. Price pressures have not broadly spread across the economy, but second-round effects may emerge over time. The European Central Bank is likely to respond cautiously, with limited need for aggressive rate hikes.

Jet fuel prices have surged sharply due to supply tensions linked to Middle East disruptions. The spike reflects a shortage of refined products rather than crude oil, as indicated by soaring refining margins. Because the region is a major exporter of petroleum products and Europe depends heavily on imported jet fuel, any disruption in Gulf supply routes quickly drives prices higher.