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Oil markets are reacting to the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. While short term supply remains constrained, rising spare capacity and weakening cartel discipline point to higher volatility ahead, with current price declines likely driven by profit taking rather than a trend reversal.

Gold markets experienced strong volatility in Q1, with record highs followed by sharp corrections. ETF flows reflected investor caution, shifting from strong inflows to outflows by March. High prices are dampening jewelry demand, while central bank actions add complexity. Despite weaker physical demand, geopolitical risks and expectations of looser monetary policy support a positive medium-term outlook for gold.

The NBP increased its gold reserves in March 2026 by about 13 tons, taking advantage of a sharp price correction. Total holdings rose to around 580 tons. Despite a lower valuation due to falling prices, the central bank continues its strategy of accumulation and is now just over 30 tons away from entering the global top 10 in gold reserves.

Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% mainly due to higher energy prices driven by tensions in Iran, while core inflation remained subdued. Price pressures have not broadly spread across the economy, but second-round effects may emerge over time. The European Central Bank is likely to respond cautiously, with limited need for aggressive rate hikes.

Jet fuel prices have surged sharply due to supply tensions linked to Middle East disruptions. The spike reflects a shortage of refined products rather than crude oil, as indicated by soaring refining margins. Because the region is a major exporter of petroleum products and Europe depends heavily on imported jet fuel, any disruption in Gulf supply routes quickly drives prices higher.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy prices higher, but markets remain relatively calm as a full blockade by Iran is seen as unlikely. Asian economies would be most exposed to disruptions in oil flows. While global oil supply buffers could temporarily stabilize the market, prolonged conflict could significantly increase energy prices and shipping costs.

Poland’s latest data point to broad based economic cooling and deepening producer price deflation, strengthening the case for a March rate cut. Weak industrial output, softer wage dynamics and subdued cost pressures reinforce the disinflation narrative and support expectations of further monetary easing.

US inflation continued to ease in January, with both headline and core readings showing gradual moderation. Tariff effects remain limited and rent pressures have slowed. The Fed is likely to stay on hold in the near term, but markets expect rate cuts from mid year, pricing in close to two and a half reductions by year end.

Gold and silver have partially recovered after a sharp correction, but valuations remain elevated. The recent rally was not supported by falling real rates or higher inflation expectations, leaving prices vulnerable. Safe haven demand driven by geopolitical and policy uncertainty remains strong, limiting downside risks, but future gains are likely to be slower and more volatile.

The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged while focusing on preserving its independence amid mounting political pressure. The labour market is stable but vulnerable, justifying caution. Markets do not expect near term rate cuts, while confidence in the dollar is increasingly at risk, raising the possibility of a self reinforcing period of dollar weakness.