July 2025 Gold Market Overview: Central Banks Drive Demand Amidst Dollar Weakness
After reaching an all-time high of USD 3,500/oz on April 22nd, gold has consolidated within a broad range of USD 3,120-3,450/oz. This stabilisation coincides with a decline in economic policy uncertainty, a rebound in asset markets, and reduced asset market volatility. While gold has shown resilience against the US dollar, appreciating by 27.3% year-to-date (41.8% year-over-year), its performance against a basket of other currencies, such as the EUR (-4%), GBP (-1.8%), and CAD (-1.8%), has been weaker. This suggests that gold remains well-positioned to resume its uptrend should risk appetite weaken.
Gold's Performance and Key Influences
After reaching an all-time high of USD 3,500/oz on April 22nd, gold has consolidated within a broad range of USD 3,120-3,450/oz. This stabilisation coincides with a decline in economic policy uncertainty, a rebound in asset markets, and reduced asset market volatility. While gold has shown resilience against the US dollar, appreciating by 27.3% year-to-date (41.8% year-over-year), its performance against a basket of other currencies, such as the EUR (-4%), GBP (-1.8%), and CAD (-1.8%), has been weaker. This suggests that gold remains well-positioned to resume its uptrend should risk appetite weaken.
Central Banks Remain Bullish on Gold
The latest Survey of Central Banks released by the World Gold Council (WGC) highlights a strong desire among central banks to continue increasing their gold holdings. This trend is driven by concerns surrounding the US dollar. In 2024, central bank gold holdings increased by 1,044.6 tonnes, a continuation of the large-scale purchases observed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Notably, 95% of central bank respondents expect sector holdings to increase over the next twelve months, with 43% of institutions planning to buy gold themselves. Emerging and frontier countries are dominating the flow of gold into central bank reserves, with Poland (89.5t), Türkiye (77.4t), India (72.6t), Azerbaijan (44.8t), and China (44.2t) being the largest reported buyers in 2024.
Silver and Platinum Outperform
While gold has been range-bound, both platinum and silver have seen significant price surges.
- Silver: The price of silver has risen to USD 36.84/oz, up 6.8% month-over-month and 20.9% year-over-year. This rise is consistent with renewed investor risk appetite. The Silver Institute projects 2025 to be the seventh consecutive year of supply deficit for silver.
- Platinum: Platinum surged by 29.3% month-over-month to USD 1,389/oz. This surge is attributed to entrenched market deficits, depleting above-ground stocks, and increased demand from China's jewellery market. Scenario analysis by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) suggests that plausible increases in investor demand could lead to a rapid depletion of above-ground platinum stocks by 2026 or 2027.
Key Takeaways for July 2025
- Gold's Stability: Gold has consolidated after its recent highs, demonstrating underlying strength despite reduced speculative interest.
- Central Bank Demand: Central banks globally, particularly from emerging and frontier markets, are committed to increasing their gold reserves, driven by a weakening outlook for the US dollar.
- Platinum and Silver Potential: Both silver and platinum are experiencing supply deficits and strong demand, indicating potential for continued price appreciation.
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