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Global markets have shifted back into risk-off mode after Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran dampened de-escalation hopes. Equities and AUD/USD weakened as bearish momentum resumed, while the US dollar strengthened. WTI crude oil surged above $102.25, supported by supply concerns, but gold’s recent rally shows signs of exhaustion. Technical signals suggest further downside risks for risk assets unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

US stock indices surged sharply, but the rally may be a dead cat bounce driven by short-covering and quarter-end positioning amid hopes of a US–Iran de-escalation. Technical signals remain bearish, with major indices still below key resistance levels and longer-term charts flashing reversal patterns. Weak market breadth suggests limited participation, keeping downside risks intact unless critical levels are reclaimed.

AUD/USD remains in a firm downtrend below 0.6910 despite earlier support from a hawkish RBA. The pair has reversed sharply from recent highs as rising stagflation risks and oil-driven macro uncertainty weigh on global risk sentiment. Increasing correlation with equities suggests further downside if markets weaken. A break below 0.6838 could expose 0.6710, while a move above 0.6910 may trigger a rebound.

WTI crude oil is signalling the end of its recent pullback, with price action turning bullish above 20-day moving average and reclaiming $93.70 resistance. Deepening backwardation reflects tightening near-term supply amid escalating US–Iran tensions, reinforcing upside pressure. A breakout above $102.25 could trigger a fresh rally toward $111–$124, while downside risks remain if $85.50 support fails.

EUR/USD is stabilising above the key 1.1495 support as fading US dollar momentum and a hawkish European Central Bank outlook drive potential upside. The US Dollar Index remains capped near resistance, while narrowing discount yield spreads favour the euro. A break above 1.1573 could trigger a rebound toward 1.1635 and 1.1673, but downside risks remain if support fails, exposing 1.1455 and 1.1400 in the near term.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure after a sharp 15% drop and a short-lived rebound, with the latest bounce likely a dead cat bounce. Strength in WTI crude oil and rising stagflation risks are reinforcing downside momentum, as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain volatile as conflicting US–Iran war headlines drive sharp reversals. The US Dollar Index stays supported, AUD/USD weakens, and WTI crude oil holds key support, signaling fragile sentiment and no confirmed risk-on trend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average remains under pressure after breaking below its 200-day moving average, with the recent TACO-driven rebound likely a dead cat bounce. The VIX/MOVE ratio signals unresolved rate volatility, pointing to further downside risk unless 46,710 resistance is reclaimed.

USD/JPY weakens as hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, while a firmer tone from the Bank of Japan supports yen strength. A break below 157.40 could trigger further downside toward key support levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a medium-term downtrend after breaking below the critical $4,960 support, as a hawkish Federal Reserve and rising 10-year US Treasury real yield weigh on sentiment. With rate cut expectations fading, downside risks persist unless gold reclaims key resistance levels.