Daily market news

BNP Paribas economists expect the United States (US) economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation at 3.3%, while the Fed Funds target range is seen steady at 3.5%-3.75%.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran fired a warning shot against a US warship to prevent its entry into the Strait of Hormuz, adding that it was unclear whether there was any damage.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that higher Oil prices are giving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) temporary support, but warns that a fragile Canadian economy and upcoming USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) talks could trigger setbacks.

EUR/JPY trades around 184.00 on Monday, down slightly by 0.04% at the time of writing, as contrasting fundamentals persist between a resilient Eurozone and a Japanese Yen (JPY) supported by defensive flows.

NZD/USD holds ground after experiencing volatility, trading around 0.5900 during the European hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) has recovered its daily losses and is extending its gains amid uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations.

The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed

Commerzbank strategists note AUD/USD held at 0.7200 on Friday and gained modestly over the week as markets price further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. Overnight index swaps imply a high probability of a third consecutive 25 bp hike to 4.35% and additional tightening by year-end.

EUR/JPY holds losses after paring its daily losses, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and holds steady above the 0.7200 mark, near its highest level since June 2022, touched on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buyers following a modest Asian session downtick to the 156.60 region on Monday.