Gold has recovered sharply from its one-year low as easing energy-price pressure, lower long-term Treasury yields and softer dollar conditions support a potential bullish reversal.
Key takeaways
- Gold has rallied 7.2% from its late-October low, supported by softer oil prices, lower US Treasury yields and post-midterm dollar weakness.
- Price has reclaimed the 20-day moving average, while an ascending channel and RSI above 50 suggest an improving medium-term bullish momentum.
- A break above 4,190 may expose 4,254 and 4,315, while a daily close below 4,034 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Gold (XAU/USD) has recovered above US$4,000 since 4 November 2026, supported by falling oil prices, post-US midterm dollar weakness and lower long-term US Treasury yields, with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping below 5%.
The rebound accelerated to an intraday high of US$4,149 on Monday, 9 November 2026, a 7.2% rally from a one-year low of US$3,870, printed on 30 October 2026, which coincides with a major support level of US$3,886, defined by the major swing low of 28 October 2025.
Softer oil prices triggered the recovery
Gold’s rebound began on 2 November after the preceding session’s technology sell-off had triggered margin calls and forced liquidation of bullion.
Iran–Qatar diplomatic talks then pushed oil sharply lower, easing concerns that energy inflation would require prolonged Fed tightening. A softer dollar provided additional support. This helped gold recover from its late-October one-year low.1
Let’s now assess the medium-term outlook (multi-week) for gold from a technical analysis perspective.
Above 20-day MA with bullish momentum
Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 10 Nov 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The price action of gold (XAU/USD) has cleared, retested and traded back above the 20-day moving average since 5 November 2026 (see Fig. 1).
In addition, the precious yellow metal has begun to oscillate within an ascending channel since the key swing low on 30 October 2026, with the 4-hour RSI continuing to exhibit bullish momentum above the 50 level.
These observations suggest that a potential medium-term bullish reversal low may have formed on 30 October 2026, following a 9-month corrective decline of 31% from the all-time high printed on 29 January 2026.
Watch the 4,034 key medium-term pivotal support and a clearance above the intermediate resistance at 4,190 (also the 50-day moving average), with medium-term resistances at 4,254 and 4,315.
However, a daily close below 4,034 invalidates the bullish scenario, exposing the next medium-term support at 3,964 and the possibility of a retest of the major support area of 3,886/3,870.
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