The US Election and Financial Markets

Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.

How will the 2024 election affect the market?

As the election landscape develops, trade popular forex pairs with OANDA

START TRADING
A chart showing how did the dollar performunder different presidents

Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.* 

The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.* 

In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership* 

*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Following President Biden's announcement to resign from the 2024 presidential race, a level of political uncertainty sweeps the financial markets.

Moheb Hanna, OANDA Senior Market Analyst

 

What impact could Kamala Harris 
have on the financial markets?

With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, we are set for an election without the incumbent president on the ballot card for the first time since 1968. Current Vice-President Kamala Harris will be the Democrat nominee to take on Donald Trump in November, but what could this mean for both traders and the financial markets?

Volatility:

The unprecedented drop out of President Biden could spark uncertainty in the financial markets.

Inflation and Interest Rates:

The resurgence Of inflationary pressures from both parties' fiscal policies could prompt the Fed to delay rate cuts until November, despite the ongoing decline in inflation.

Kamala's Economic Policies:

Kamala Harris' economic policies, though uncertain, are expected to align with the Democratic agenda of raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare, investing in education and infrastructure, and increasing government regulation:

The US Dollar:

Election-related uncertainty could cause unpredictable fluctuations in the US Dollar, leading investors to focus on the Fed's monetary policy as the primary driver.

Leveraged trading is high risk. Losses can exceed deposits. 
*https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/

 

Our latest coverage

Take a look at our latest market coverage from the presidential race:

US Elections Special Report: Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer significantly different visions for USA's future, and the outcome will have profound implications for both domestic and global policies.

How Kamala Harris’ Political And Economic Approach Could Affect The Financial Markets

A look at Kamala Harris’ role as vice president and her policy positions earlier in her career. What are her views and how would these affect the financial markets if she is elected president of the United States?

Key economic metrics to follow in the 2024 US presidential election

Comparing Biden and Trump in terms of economic metrics: how can their previous performance be judged?

What's Trump's second election as US president might mean for financial markets

With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?

 

How do previous presidencies compare?

Covering the last six administrations, we collected 976 data points to find out.

Non-Farm Payroll

With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?

Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*

The chart.

Gross Domestic Product

Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?

To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*

Gross Domestic Product.

Inflation rate

With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?

While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*

The chart.

TradingView 'Broker of the Year 2023', 'Most Popular Broker'  for three consecutive years 2020, 2021, 2022

Invest Cuffs  ‘Brokerage House of the Year 2022’

DISCOVER WHY OANDA

 

Key economic metrics to follow in the US election

OANDA analyst Moheb Hanna takes you through the key economic metrics that traders should
monitor on the run in to the election. 

In the last presidential election, how did these major currencies perform?

A chart.

Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year* 
Between Biden's official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value* 

*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A chart: How did the dollar react to the 2020 presidential debates.
Dollar in 2020

Client Sentiment

Naam van instrument Ticker % investorer, der sælger/køber
Instrument icon
EURUSD
EURUSD 51% 49% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GOLD
GOLD 53% 47% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
US100
US100 32% 68% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
DE30
DE30 24% 76% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
BTCUSD 82% 18% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
OILWTI
OILWTI 74% 26% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
NATGAS
NATGAS 70% 30% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
LITECOIN (LTCUSD)
LTCUSD 84% 16% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
US500
US500 29% 71% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD)
ETHUSD 91% 9% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
PL20
PL20 63% 37% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
USDPLN
USDPLN 77% 23% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
USDJPY
USDJPY 48% 52% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
COCOA
COCOA 64% 36% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
BITCOIN CASH (BCHUSD)
BCHUSD 92% 8% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 50% 50% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
SILVER
SILVER 68% 32% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
PALLAD
PALLAD 74% 26% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
US30
US30 19% 81% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
WHEAT
WHEAT 93% 7% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
OILBRNT
OILBRNT 81% 19% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
USDCHF
USDCHF 86% 14% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURPLN
EURPLN 64% 36% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
PLATIN
PLATIN 93% 7% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
NZDUSD
NZDUSD 57% 43% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AUDUSD
AUDUSD 47% 53% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURJPY
EURJPY 38% 62% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
COFFEE
COFFEE 52% 48% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPJPY
GBPJPY 49% 51% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
COTTON
COTTON 95% 5% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
SOYBEAN
SOYBEAN 94% 6% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
USDCAD
USDCAD 45% 55% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURGBP
EURGBP 63% 37% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURCHF
EURCHF 73% 27% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
FR40
FR40 51% 49% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
SUGAR
SUGAR 50% 50% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
JP225
JP225 29% 71% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
US2000
US2000 79% 21% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
CHFPLN
CHFPLN 29% 71% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
CADCHF
CADCHF 77% 23% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
CADJPY
CADJPY 47% 53% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURAUD
EURAUD 73% 27% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPCHF
GBPCHF 54% 46% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURCAD
EURCAD 63% 37% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPCAD
GBPCAD 64% 36% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AUDCAD
AUDCAD 52% 48% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GB100
GB100 67% 33% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AUDJPY
AUDJPY 60% 40% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AUDCHF
AUDCHF 43% 57% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EU50
EU50 36% 64% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AUDNZD
AUDNZD 50% 50% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
CHFJPY
CHFJPY 33% 67% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
USDTRY
USDTRY 5% 95% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
NZDJPY
NZDJPY 57% 43% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPNZD
GBPNZD 65% 35% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURTRY
EURTRY 0% 100% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURNZD
EURNZD 63% 37% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPPLN
GBPPLN 59% 41% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
EURHUF
EURHUF 18% 82% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
GBPAUD
GBPAUD 85% 15% Controleer voorwaarden »
Instrument icon
AU200
AU200 50% 50% Controleer voorwaarden »

How are OANDA TMS clients currently positioned on their most traded assets?

 Clients with relevant experience and investment knowledge, allowing them to make educated decisions, combined with the ability to assess the risk associated with investment decisions can be classed as professional. Professional clients are not affected by the ESMA leverage restrictions.

Hottest markets

What are the most active markets now? You can check aggregated live data with the largest amount of opened transactions.

Hottest markets by time

List of top most traded instruments with highest number of opened trades during the last two hours.

Hours indicator

List of top most traded instruments during past hour.

Data source

All data is calculated based on positions from real money accounts of OANDA TMS clients.

Live Markets

EURUSD

EURUSD.pro

--

(--)

GBPUSD.pro

--

(--)

USDJPY.pro

--

(--)

AUDUSD.pro

--

(--)

Track all markets on TradingView 
Leveraged trading is high risk. Losses can exceed deposits.

Snelle opening van een rekening, begin nu met beleggen

Ontdek hoe u de concurrentie een stap voor kunt zijn

Open een rekening
Meer dan 20 jaar op de markten, de beste analyses, moderne tools en duizenden tevreden klanten. Handel met een bekroonde makelaar
Krijg toegang tot wereldwijde markten - duizenden instrumenten binnen handbereik Beslissingen nemen op basis van actuele gegevens - dagelijkse kansen en aanbevelingen
Neem de regie - mobiele tools voor beleggingsbeheer Handel zonder onnodige kosten - geen commissie op belangrijke instrumenten. Inzichtelijke prijsstelling en historische spreads
Scroll to top