June 2025 Gold Market Overview: Why Platinum and Silver are Stealing the Spotlight

Gold's Current Stance and Future Outlook

Gold experienced a period of consolidation in May 2025 after reaching an all-time high of $3,500/oz on April 22nd. This consolidation was influenced by eased concerns about US tariffs and a rebound in global risk appetite, which pushed stocks higher and reduced asset market volatility. Despite this, gold only modestly weakened from its peak, accompanied by a significant reduction in speculative long positions across futures, gold-backed ETFs, and options, which has improved its technical outlook.

Looking ahead, gold appears poised to renew its uptrend, especially with the US dollar under pressure. A weakening US dollar and/or a re-emergence of tariff or fiscal fears could easily trigger renewed speculative appetite for gold, potentially pushing it to test its all-time high and possibly even reach $4,000/oz.

Key Market Movements and Related Indicators 

As of June 5, 2025, gold was priced at $3,365/oz, showing a 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) increase and a significant 44.6% year-over-year (YoY) rise.

Here's a snapshot of gold and other precious metals:

• Gold: $3,365/oz (0.9% MoM, 44.6% YoY)
• Silver: $34.45/oz (6.0% MoM, 16.9% YoY)
• Platinum: $1,090/oz (13.6% MoM, 10.4% YoY)
• Palladium: $997/oz (6.0% MoM, 8.9% YoY)

In May, platinum was the standout performer, surging by 13.6% MoM, while silver also saw a strong uptrend with a 6% MoM increase. This rotation in strength from gold to silver and platinum was largely driven by a recovery in investor risk appetite.

Related indicators for June 2025 include:

• S&P 500 Index: 5,971 (5.7% MoM, 12.8% YoY)
• USD Index (5-country): 128.90 (-1.3% MoM, -0.9% YoY)
• WTI Crude Oil: $62.71/bbl (9.8% MoM, -14.4% YoY)
• Copper (COMEX): $9,669.00 (3.0% MoM, -1.5% YoY)
• Bloomberg Commodity Index: 102.20 (1.0% MoM, 0.9% YoY)

Gold's strong negative correlation with the US dollar index (-0.94 over the past three months) suggests that a weakening dollar could further support gold prices.

Speculative Positions and Volatility

Speculative net open non-commercial futures positions for gold on COMEX fell to 550.7t in the last week of May, marking the thirteenth decline in sixteen weeks. Gold-backed ETF holdings also decreased by 32.2t month-to-date as of May 23rd. This reduction in speculative positions, along with a drop in gold implied volatility to 18.2% (down from a peak of 24% on April 22nd), suggests a stabilization in holdings while gold remains range-bound. However, if gold resumes its uptrend, demand for gold-backed ETFs is expected to pick up momentum.

Gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA)

The US is set to implement Basel III Endgame regulations on July 1st. While some have suggested gold might be classified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA), the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) indicates this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, unallocated gold held by banks faces an increased risk weighting under Basel III, making it less attractive for banks to hold as a liquid reserve.

Despite this classification, central bankers worldwide view gold as a crucial reserve asset. The 2024 Central Bank Gold Survey highlights that central banks predominantly consider gold as a "store of value," a good performer in crises, a portfolio diversifier, and an asset with "no default risk". Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, purchasing 6,777.1t over the past decade.

Platinum's Resurgence

Platinum has shown remarkable strength, with its price rising to $1,090/oz following the World Platinum Investment Council's (WPIC) Q1 2025 Platinum Quarterly report. The WPIC projects a third consecutive year of supply deficit for platinum in 2025, estimated at 966koz (30.05t). This deficit is expected to significantly reduce above-ground stocks, potentially to near-zero within the next 3-4 years.

Supply constraints are attributed to factors such as heavy rainfall in South Africa, mine restructuring, and limited investment in new supply since 2011. On the demand side, while automotive and industrial demand are projected to ease, jewelry demand, particularly from China, is expanding. The development of new platinum alloys, such as Inoveo Platinum, is also making platinum jewelry manufacturing more cost-effective, further supporting demand. The sustained supply deficits suggest that a significantly higher price will be needed to re-balance supply and demand, especially if investor buying picks up.

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