December 2025 gold market overview: safe-haven demand resumes the rally

The fundamental driver behind gold's continued appreciation is elevated economic uncertainty. 

Key market drivers in December 2025 

The primary catalyst for gold's performance is persistent economic and economic policy uncertainty. Key factors contributing to this safe-haven demand include: 

• Policy uncertainty: Concerns around US trade and tariff policy, US fiscal and monetary policy, and the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chairperson.
• Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Fiscal instability: Large-scale primary budget deficits in the US point to increasing fiscal instability and the risk of fiscal dominance. The US Federal government debt held by the public climbed to 99.8% of GDP in FY2025.
• US equity market concerns: Investor anxiety about the sustainability of the US equity market rally, especially as the positive generative-AI narrative faces scrutiny. 

Gold typically performs best during periods of monetary easing, US dollar weakness, elevated asset market volatility, and, most importantly, economic uncertainty. 

Gold's price action and technical levels 

As of December 4, 2025, the price of gold stood at USD 4,206/oz. 

While the rally has resumed, gold has yet to breach its October 20th high of USD 4,381/oz , which is emerging as an important technical resistance level. Until this level is convincingly broken, the rally's continuance cannot be fully confirmed, and the longer it takes to breach, the stronger the resistance is likely to become. 

Gold is currently trading above its 200-day moving average (USD 3,494/oz), with momentum indicators showing a mildly positive outlook. If the October 20th high is breached, it is anticipated to renew discussions about the likely timing of a break above the psychological USD 5,000/oz level. 

Investor and Central Bank activity 

Gold-backed ETFs 

Gold-backed ETF holdings continued to grow in November, increasing by 21.8 tonnes in the first three weeks of the month, bringing total holdings to 3,915.2 tonnes. Year-to-date, holdings have increased by 696.4 tonnes, representing about 21% of mine supply. 

• Regional demand: North America (394.1t) and Asia (+180.3t) led the demand, with Europe (+114.8t) also increasing holdings.
• Chinese growth: Chinese gold-backed ETFs have experienced explosive growth, with holdings more-than doubling to 237.8 tonnes. 

Central Bank purchases 

Central Banks were active buyers in October, purchasing 53 tonnes of gold, which was the largest monthly increase since November 2024. Notable buyers included: 

• National Bank of Poland (+16t)
• Bank of Brazil (+16t)
• Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (+9t) 

Performance of other precious metals 

The precious metals complex saw a general rebound in December, led by silver. Silver surged by 21.7% MoM, continuing to lead the precious metals higher, supported by tight physical availability. Its year-on-year performance was 88.5%. This strength owes to sustained supply deficits and a steady decline in above-ground stocks. Platinum also performed strongly, rising 6.8% MoM, resulting in a YoY gain of 75.3%. Like silver, platinum's strength is due to multi-year supply deficits and limited availability in leasing markets, with leasing rates currently hovering around 14% annualised on a one-month basis. The physical availability of platinum remains tight, with a psychological target of USD 2,000/oz set for the near term. Palladium lagged its peers but still posted a gain of 1.1% MoM, bringing its YoY rise to 50.2%. 

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