S&P 500 Q3 2025 earnings led by tech, financials, and communication services

• The S&P 500 continues to set record highs, with 27 new peaks since mid-2025, supported by resilient earnings growth expectations and firm-specific performance across key sectors.
• Projected Q3 2025 earnings growth for the S&P 500 has been revised upward to 8%, while revenue growth is expected at 6.3%, marking the 20th straight quarter of revenue expansion.
• Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services led upward earnings revisions, with standout contributions from Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase, and Meta Platforms.
• Nvidia and JPMorgan Chase remain in firm medium-term uptrends, while Meta Platforms shows early signs of weakness below its key moving averages, indicating potential near-term mean reversion.

Using the benchmark S&P 500 index as the barometer, the US stock market has continued to scale fresh all-time highs since the end of June 2025, after the horrendous plunge of 21% ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.

All in all, the S&P 500 has printed 27 record highs since the second half of 2025 as of 1 October 2025. To maintain its bullish trend, other than macro factors, we also need to consider firm-based factors, which are primarily the earnings growth trends of the S&P 500's component stocks that can significantly impact its future movements.

In this article, we will examine the earnings growth trends of the S&P 500, sectors, and key stocks to watch in the upcoming third-quarter US earnings session, which kicks off in mid-October 2025.

Let’s start with the S&P 500.

Based on the latest data compiled by FactSet as of 3 October 2025, the projected year-on-year Q3 earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 is 8.0%, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 7.3% at the start of the quarter as of 30 June 2025. If 8% is the actual growth rate for Q3, it will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the S&P 500.

A key point to note is that the estimated 8% earnings growth rate for Q3 2025 is below both the 5-year average earnings growth rate of 14.9% and the 10-year average earnings growth rate of 9.5% (see Fig. 1).

The S&P 500 is now projected to deliver year-over-year revenue growth of 6.3%, up from the 4.8% forecast as of June 30. If achieved, this would represent the second-highest growth rate since Q3 2022 (11.0%), just behind the prior quarter, and mark the index's 20th consecutive quarter of revenue growth (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now zero in on the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500.

8 of the 11 sectors are projected to report year-on-year earnings growth in Q3, led by the information technology (20.9%), utilities (17.9%), materials (13.9%), and financial (11.5%) sectors.

On the other hand, three sectors are expected to record a year-on-year decline in earnings growth, led by the energy (-4%) and consumer staples (-3.1%) sectors (see Fig. 1).

Six sectors have recorded an increase in expected earnings due to current upward revisions to earnings estimates versus 30 June 2025, led by the information technology (20.9% vs. 15.9%), financials (11% vs. 7.6%), and communication services (3.2% vs. 0.8%) sectors (see Fig. 1).

On the other hand, five sectors have recorded decreased earnings due to current downward revisions to earnings estimates measured versus 30 June 2025, led by the health care (0.1% vs. 7.3%) and materials (13.9% vs. 19.4%) sectors (see Fig. 1).

Nvidia (estimated earnings per share revised to $1.24 from $1.17), Apple (estimated earnings per share revised to $1.76 from $1.65), Microsoft (estimated earnings per share revised to $3.65 from $3.56), and Micron Technology (estimated earnings per share revised to $3.03 from $2.49), have been the primary drivers behind the increase in expected dollar-level earnings for the information technology sector since 30 June 2025.

JPMorgan Chase (estimated earnings per share revised to $4.78 from $4.48) and Progressive (estimated earnings per share revised to $4.81 from $3.53) have led the upward revision in expected dollar-level earnings for the financials sector over the same period.

Meta Platforms (estimated earnings per share revised to $6.66 from $5.89) and Alphabet (estimated earnings per share revised to $2.31 from $2.23) have been the key contributors to the rise in projected dollar-level earnings for the communication services sector since 30 June 2025.

Now, look at the technical charts of Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase, and Meta Platforms.

Nvidia's price actions have continued to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel since the 7 April 2025 low of 86.62 and traded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 3).

The ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the Nvidia/S&P 500 ETF and Nvidia/S&P 500 Information Technology sector ETF have shown potential outperformance of Nvidia against the S&P 500 and the Information Technology sector.

Nvidia will report its Q3 earnings results on 19 November 2025 after the close of the US session.

JPMorgan Chase's price actions traded back above its 20-day moving average on Friday, 3 October 2025, while remaining above its 50-day moving average since 30 April 2025 (see Fig. 4).

The ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 ETF and JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 financials sector ETF suggest potential outperformance of JPMorgan Chase against the S&P 500 and the financials sector.

JPMorgan Chase will report its Q3 earnings results on 14 October 2025, before the start of the US session.

The medium-term uptrend phase of Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, is in jeopardy as its recent price actions have traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 26 September 2025 (see Fig. 5).

The ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the Meta Platform/S&P 500 ETF and the Meta Platforms/S&P 500 Communications Services sector ETF have shown potential underperformance of Meta Platforms against the S&P 500 and the Communication Services Technology sector.

Meta Platforms will report its Q3 earnings results on 30 October 2025 after the close of the US session.