The US Election and Financial Markets

Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.

How will the 2024 election affect the market?

As the election landscape develops, trade popular forex pairs with OANDA

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A chart showing how did the dollar performunder different presidents

Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.* 

The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.* 

In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership* 

*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Following President Biden's announcement to resign from the 2024 presidential race, a level of political uncertainty sweeps the financial markets.

Moheb Hanna, OANDA Senior Market Analyst

 

What impact could Kamala Harris 
have on the financial markets?

With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, we are set for an election without the incumbent president on the ballot card for the first time since 1968. Current Vice-President Kamala Harris will be the Democrat nominee to take on Donald Trump in November, but what could this mean for both traders and the financial markets?

Volatility:

The unprecedented drop out of President Biden could spark uncertainty in the financial markets.

Inflation and Interest Rates:

The resurgence Of inflationary pressures from both parties' fiscal policies could prompt the Fed to delay rate cuts until November, despite the ongoing decline in inflation.

Kamala's Economic Policies:

Kamala Harris' economic policies, though uncertain, are expected to align with the Democratic agenda of raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare, investing in education and infrastructure, and increasing government regulation:

The US Dollar:

Election-related uncertainty could cause unpredictable fluctuations in the US Dollar, leading investors to focus on the Fed's monetary policy as the primary driver.

Leveraged trading is high risk. Losses can exceed deposits. 
*https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/

 

Our latest coverage

Take a look at our latest market coverage from the presidential race:

US Elections Special Report: Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer significantly different visions for USA's future, and the outcome will have profound implications for both domestic and global policies.

How Kamala Harris’ Political And Economic Approach Could Affect The Financial Markets

A look at Kamala Harris’ role as vice president and her policy positions earlier in her career. What are her views and how would these affect the financial markets if she is elected president of the United States?

Key economic metrics to follow in the 2024 US presidential election

Comparing Biden and Trump in terms of economic metrics: how can their previous performance be judged?

What's Trump's second election as US president might mean for financial markets

With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?

 

How do previous presidencies compare?

Covering the last six administrations, we collected 976 data points to find out.

Non-Farm Payroll

With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?

Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*

The chart.

Gross Domestic Product

Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?

To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*

Gross Domestic Product.

Inflation rate

With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?

While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*

The chart.

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Key economic metrics to follow in the US election

OANDA analyst Moheb Hanna takes you through the key economic metrics that traders should
monitor on the run in to the election. 

In the last presidential election, how did these major currencies perform?

A chart.

Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year* 
Between Biden's official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value* 

*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A chart: How did the dollar react to the 2020 presidential debates.
Dollar in 2020

Client Sentiment

Nome do instrumento Ticker % de investidores que vendem / compram
Instrument icon
EURUSD
EURUSD 53% 47% Consultar as condições »
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GOLD
GOLD 45% 55% Consultar as condições »
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US100
US100 33% 67% Consultar as condições »
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DE30
DE30 19% 81% Consultar as condições »
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
BTCUSD 83% 17% Consultar as condições »
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OILWTI
OILWTI 60% 40% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
NATGAS
NATGAS 72% 28% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
LITECOIN (LTCUSD)
LTCUSD 84% 16% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
US500
US500 28% 72% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD)
ETHUSD 90% 10% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
PL20
PL20 64% 36% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
USDPLN
USDPLN 78% 22% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
USDJPY
USDJPY 46% 54% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
BITCOIN CASH (BCHUSD)
BCHUSD 91% 9% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
COCOA
COCOA 61% 39% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 55% 45% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
SILVER
SILVER 65% 35% Consultar as condições »
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PALLAD
PALLAD 68% 32% Consultar as condições »
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WHEAT
WHEAT 94% 6% Consultar as condições »
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US30
US30 19% 81% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
OILBRNT
OILBRNT 73% 27% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
USDCHF
USDCHF 88% 12% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURPLN
EURPLN 64% 36% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
PLATIN
PLATIN 92% 8% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
USDCAD
USDCAD 37% 63% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
COFFEE
COFFEE 49% 51% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
AUDUSD
AUDUSD 55% 45% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURJPY
EURJPY 40% 60% Consultar as condições »
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NZDUSD
NZDUSD 63% 37% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
SOYBEAN
SOYBEAN 95% 5% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
COTTON
COTTON 93% 7% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPJPY
GBPJPY 49% 51% Consultar as condições »
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EURCHF
EURCHF 78% 22% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
JP225
JP225 28% 72% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURGBP
EURGBP 66% 34% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
SUGAR
SUGAR 49% 51% Consultar as condições »
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FR40
FR40 49% 51% Consultar as condições »
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CADCHF
CADCHF 83% 17% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
CADJPY
CADJPY 44% 56% Consultar as condições »
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US2000
US2000 76% 24% Consultar as condições »
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CHFPLN
CHFPLN 28% 73% Consultar as condições »
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AUDCAD
AUDCAD 59% 41% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPCAD
GBPCAD 64% 36% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GB100
GB100 61% 39% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
AUDJPY
AUDJPY 55% 45% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
AUDCHF
AUDCHF 45% 55% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPCHF
GBPCHF 50% 50% Consultar as condições »
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EURCAD
EURCAD 47% 53% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURAUD
EURAUD 57% 43% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EU50
EU50 39% 61% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
CHFJPY
CHFJPY 31% 69% Consultar as condições »
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AUDNZD
AUDNZD 46% 54% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
NZDJPY
NZDJPY 57% 43% Consultar as condições »
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USDTRY
USDTRY 15% 85% Consultar as condições »
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GBPNZD
GBPNZD 55% 45% Consultar as condições »
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EURTRY
EURTRY 0% 100% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURHUF
EURHUF 17% 83% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPPLN
GBPPLN 56% 44% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
EURNZD
EURNZD 31% 69% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
GBPAUD
GBPAUD 75% 25% Consultar as condições »
Instrument icon
AU200
AU200 42% 58% Consultar as condições »

How are OANDA TMS clients currently positioned on their most traded assets?

 Clients with relevant experience and investment knowledge, allowing them to make educated decisions, combined with the ability to assess the risk associated with investment decisions can be classed as professional. Professional clients are not affected by the ESMA leverage restrictions.

Hottest markets

What are the most active markets now? You can check aggregated live data with the largest amount of opened transactions.

Hottest markets by time

List of top most traded instruments with highest number of opened trades during the last two hours.

Hours indicator

List of top most traded instruments during past hour.

Data source

All data is calculated based on positions from real money accounts of OANDA TMS clients.

Live Markets

EURUSD

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GBPUSD.pro

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USDJPY.pro

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AUDUSD.pro

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