WTI climbs to six-month high on rising US-Iran tensions
WTI extends gains after a nearly 5% rally, hitting its highest level since August 2025.Escalating US-Iran tensions lift geopolitical risk premium in Oil markets.Technical structure improves as RSI holds above 50.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its advance on Thursday following a nearly 4.9% rally a day earlier, as mounting US-Iran tensions fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the US benchmark trades around $66.38 per barrel, hitting its highest level since August 2025.
Markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical risk following reports of potential US military action after nuclear negotiations with Iran failed to yield a breakthrough earlier this week. Any escalation could threaten crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global Oil shipments.
US President Donald Trump said earlier in the day that “good talks are being had with Iran,” adding that Washington must secure a “meaningful deal.” He stressed that “they can’t have a nuclear weapon” and noted that “we will find out about Iran in about 10 days.
Meanwhile, The Times reported that the United Kingdom (UK) is blocking the US from using Royal Air Force (RAF) bases for potential strikes on Iran, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the situation.
From a technical perspective, WTI’s outlook has improved on the daily chart after prices climbed back above key moving averages, including the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $62.20, which now acts as dynamic support following repeated rebounds.
Price action is forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting buyers remain firmly in control. Momentum indicators support the bullish tilt.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 63, comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating sustained upside momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 28 signals strengthening trend conditions, with the Average True Range at 2.05 pointing to contained volatility.
On the upside, prices are currently testing a key resistance zone in the $66.00-$67.00 region. A sustained break above this barrier could open the door toward the next upside target near $70.00.
Conversely, a break below the 200-day SMA would weaken the bullish structure, exposing the 100-day SMA near $59.83 as the next support, followed by the $56.00 area.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
How does inventory data impact the price of WTI OilThe weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
