Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with caution around $78.40 ahead of US flash Q4 GDP data
Silver price wobbles around $78.40 while investors await the preliminary US Q4 GDP data.The Fed is expected to deliver two interest rate cuts this year.US-Iran tensions continue to support Silver’s safe-haven appeal.Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $78.40 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal consolidates ahead of the preliminary United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to show that the economy rose at an annualized pace of 3%, slower than 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025. Signs of slowing US GDP growth would prompt expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term. Silver tends to perform better in a low-interest-rate environment.
Currently, traders have priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed through 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In Friday’s session, investors will also focus on private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February across the globe. The US S&P Global Composite PMI is expected to come in higher than the previous reading of 53.0.
On the global front, tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are expected to keep Silver’s safe-haven appeal upbeat. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), President Donald Trump is weighing a limited military strike on Iran to pressure the economy to agree to a nuclear deal.
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In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades flat at around $78.44. Price holds beneath a declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.93, maintaining downside pressure. The 20-day EMA has rolled over in recent sessions and continues to cap recovery attempts.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 (neutral-to-bearish) keeps momentum below the midline.
Near term, sellers would retain control while the metal remains under the falling average, keeping the room open for a downside move towards the February 6 low of $64.08. On the contrary, a daily close above the 20-EMA could shift risk toward stabilization. Until momentum reclaims the 50 line on RSI, rebounds could lack traction, whereas an RSI break above 50 would improve the recovery outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Which factors influence Silver prices?Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
