National polls collated on www.realclearpolitics.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com suggest that Mr Biden still holds a lead over President Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s collated polling shows Mr Biden’s lead widened slightly at a national level to 7.1% this week. RealClearPolitics has Mr Biden’s lead widening slightly from 6.2% to 6.5% from a week ago. It is important to note though, that the headline figures reflect an aggregated number. A look at the universe of individual polls though, reveals a wide disparity in margins, although they all suggest a Biden lead.
The election will be won in the battleground states though, and here, polling remains much closer, further emphasising just how important the upcoming debates will be to the election result. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden leads by 1.3% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina. Meanwhile, President Trump leads by 1.0% with Iowa a dead heat. The margins are so small, within the actual polling margins of error, all four states are too close to call at this stage. Arguably Florida is the key to the entire election given its huge amount of Electoral College votes. Texas remains a Trump win at this stage, but Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio and New Hampshire show solid leads by Mr Biden.
Arguably, the Senate race remains the critical, yet most overlooked part of the election. With a majority of 51 seats needed for control, RCP polling suggests that the GOP has 47 seats versus 46 for the Democrats. Seven other senate seats though are a toss-up (too close to call), with six held by Republicans. With the Democrats expected to maintain control of the House of Representatives, a small swing could see them also win the Senate and potentially all three offices of power. That would allow a clear run on the legislative front, including higher taxes.
Markets, for their part though, appear more comfortable with a Biden presidency then previously. The assumption is that a Biden Presidency would be better for international trade then a Trump one, with Wall Street always finding the benefits of an isolationist United States, a debatable one.
Of course a Trump win and a GOP victory in the Senate would leave the United States in the same status quo as today. Similarly, a Biden victory, with the GOP holding the Senate would be a blocking factor to any radical legislative agendas that the Democrats may have. Arguably the latter scenario would be the most friendly for financial markets. Repairing international relations and trade, while blocking spending hikes and tax increases.