ASX 200 & AUD/USD: Key levels and momentum going into elections

After a horrendous plunge of 17% seen in the first quarter of this year from its 8,639 all-time high printed on 13 February 2025, the price actions of the Australia 200 CFD Index (a proxy of the ASX 200 futures) have recovered 50% of its losses.

Since its 7 April 2025 low of 7,149, the Australia 200 CFD Index has rallied by 14%, led by the two defensive sectors, Consumer Staples and Communication Services, which have recorded a three-month rolling performance of 4.8% and 3.5% as of 30 April 2025 that outperformed the ASX 200 (-4.5%) over the same period (see Fig 1).

The Australia 200 CFD Index just had a weekly close (for the week of 21 April) above its 50-day moving average, which is now acting as an intermediate support at around 7,950. In addition, the weekly RSI momentum indicator has inched above its 50 level (now at 51 at this time of writing) and has not reached its overbought region (above 70) (see Fig 2).

These observations suggest a potential medium-term bullish momentum revival. A clearance above the key intermediate resistance of 8,170 (also the 200-day moving average) may see a retest on the current all-time high zone of 8,525/8,639 in the first step.

On the other hand, a break below the 7,650 key medium-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish tone to expose the major support at 7,140.

Since its intraday low of 0.5914 on 9 April 2025, the AUD/USD has rallied by 9% to print an intraday high of 0.6439 on 22 April.

In the week of 21 April, it failed to have a weekly close above the 0.6400 key medium-term resistance (closed at 0.6396) and formed a weekly bearish “Spinning Top” candlestick right below the 200-day moving average. In addition, the price actions of AUD/USD have traded below the 200-day moving average since the week of 21 October 2024.

For the current week of 28 April, the AUD/USD has attempted to breach above 0.6400 again, and formed an impending weekly bearish “Spinning Top” candlestick at this time of the writing (intra-week high of 0.6450 and current trading level at 0.6400) (see Fig 3).

Current price actions of AUD/USD via candlestick patterns are showing weakness, but in contrast, the weekly RSI momentum indicator is suggesting a potential bullish momentum revival as it inched above its 50 level after a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region.

Hence, the AUD/USD may trade in a sideways range between 0.6400 and 0.6290 in the medium term. A clearance with a weekly close above 0.6400 may trigger a medium-term multi-week uptrend phase for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 0.6550 and 0.6700.

On the flipside, a break with a weekly close below 0.6290 may see further weakness to expose the next medium-term support at 0.6030/5990.